Recent market movements have defied common predictions during periods of extreme fear or greed. Santiment data analysis shows it fell to $78,000 earlier this week, and there is talk of further declines online. This pattern mirrors market behavior in late February, when prices rebounded temporarily in early March after a bearish turn from retail traders.
"Bitcoin's rise to $84,500 on Friday is a sign of what will happen when people say on Monday it's time to sell," Santiment said. "As expected, FUD peaked when $BTC fell to $78k and lower price predictions began to appear on social media."
The research highlights Bitcoin's recent stability, which has neither fallen below $70,000 nor risen above $100,000 in the past month. This consistency produces clear sentiment indicator signs: a forecast below $70,000 signals extreme fear, while a forecast above $100,000 signals extreme euphoria.
"Historically, markets move in the opposite direction of what people expect," Santiment pointed out. They added that clusters of bearish forecasts ($10K-$69K) often signal an upside reversal, while clusters of bullish forecasts ($100K-$159K) usually signal a downturn.
Technical analysis supports this sentiment-based outlook. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that "there are signs of resistance weakening."
They added that recent price activity is filling the CME gap between $82,245 and approximately $87,000, indicating that a daily close above resistance could catalyze further momentum.
The current market structure also presents potentially bullish technical signs. Another analyst, Merlin the Trader, highlighted Bitcoin’s upcoming “golden cross.”
This is a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average.
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